Welcome to our post-Iowa world, folks! I missed last month’s debate due to being sick to my stomach for non-election-related reasons, but I’m back with the power hour rankings for the February Democratic primary debate! May we not be judged too harshly for our follies.
With the shitstorm that was the Iowa caucus behind us (well, maybe), primary season has truly begun and everyone can agree we hate it. To add insult to injury, we still have to put up with these debates because our election cycle now spans three years. But that’s where our friend alcoholism comes in, so let’s get to the rankings and drinking rules for this go-round.
As a reminder, these rankings do not necessarily reflect my personal preferences, but the relative strength of their campaigns based on the news and Twitter fights I have been reading. Let’s get this over with.
1. Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg may be neck-and-neck in the Iowa results, but regardless of how many times Pete gives a victory speech, ol’ Bernie Boy came away as the real winner of the caucus. Despite maintaining solid polling numbers throughout much of the year and a well-timed surge, the Democratic Party as a whole still seemed intent on believing there was just NO WAY America would ever elect a socialist, even if his policies are largely in line with a president America actually elected four times. And he pulled it off against multiple major candidates, compared to 2016 where he benefited from being the alternative to a candidate the party wasn’t terribly enthused about. It was a big night for the Bernster.
But as has been the case pretty much all year, there is the caveat that his support really hasn’t changed much over the course of this cycle. The realignment portion of the caucus (don’t ask) allowed opponents like Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren to gain ground by picking up supporters of non-viable candidates, showing that as the field continues to narrow Sanders is still going to need to do some work convincing people to side with him, particularly after alienating the LGBTQ community with his Joe Rogan shenanigans. Ironically, this attempt to branch out may prevent him from building a larger coalition. Maybe stick to WTF next time. Regardless, going into the debate Sanders has become the new, clear frontrunner.
Drinking Rule: Take a drink every time Bernie points to a billionaire and makes a throat-cutting motion with his thumb.
2. Elizabeth Warren
Warren’s third-place finish isn’t as flashy as the neck-and-neck race between Sanders and Buttigieg, or the swift plummet of Joe Biden. But it was small victory when she needed it most, proving that she is still a viable candidate after a couple news cycles that saw her poll numbers slip and plenty of questions about the strength of her campaign. It also showed how her ground game is rock solid, and her ability to pull supporters away from various other candidates in the caucus show the blueprint for how she could build a coalition, especially as Biden continues to fade.
The hurdle she faces, though, is whether or not it’s too late. She ceded a lot of ground to Sanders and Buttigieg over the past few months, and a good showing in Iowa won’t reverse that on its own. She also became the target of an increasingly temperamental group of Bernie supporters who flooded the internet with snake emojis after she claimed Bernie told her a woman couldn’t beat Trump. It’s a classic he said/she said spat, and an unnecessary fight that she was not really prepared to deal with and proving a much bigger distraction for her than intended. She has a chance to get out of that penalty box, though, thanks to the next candidate on the list. And if her ground game is as good nationally as it was in Iowa, she could be setting herself up for the long game.
Drinking Rule: Build a beer bong whenever Warren mentions Big Structural Change.
3. Pete Buttigieg
Buttigieg had a much stronger showing in Iowa than people were expecting, especially given recent polling that had him solidly behind Sanders and Biden. It was a big boost that is helping to dispel the notion that this small-town mayor with little public service experience isn’t up to the task. Combined with his pretty outstanding fundraising (both in and out of wine caves), you’d think he’d be higher on the list.
But while he may be claiming victory in Iowa, it is coming with plenty of asterisks. The botched nature of the caucus muddles the results as the already distrustful progressive wing cries foul, and the Iowa Democratic Party hasn’t done much to quell those accusations. Making things worse, the shiny new app that was a big cause of the confusion was given money by the Buttigieg campaign and is named, I shit you not, Shadow. That’s the kind of blatantly unsubtle name for an evil tech corporation you’d expect in a Hideo Kojima game. So while Petey Boy may walk away from Iowa with a first or second-place showing, he is walking into New Hampshire having reunited the progressive supporters of Sanders and Warren against him and with questions about *sigh* Shadow hanging over his head.
Drinking Rule: Share your drink with everyone in the room whenever Buttigieg mentions uniting the country and then go back to secretly hating one another.
4. Amy Klobuchar
Klobuchar has a lot to celebrate after Iowa. She has been lagging significantly behind her competitors in the polls and struggled to make an impact with voters. She’s been considered an also-ran since nearly the beginning of the primary. But gosh darn it, you just can’t keep that Midwestern can-do attitude down, and her intense schedule of Iowa events seems to have paid off. Despite polling in the single digits beforehand, she looks to grab about 13% in Iowa, and actually came pretty close to beating Biden there. This is both very impressive for Klobuchar and deeply embarrassing for Biden.
This is all well and good, but part of the reason Klobuchar spent so much effort on Iowa is because her campaign was on life support. She will certainly get a bit of bump from that, but she doesn’t have the same kind of time or resources to devote the same effort in New Hampshire and the other upcoming primary states. Her best bet is for Biden to bow out early, but even after Iowa that is unlikely. She needs to yell at a staffer to come up with a solution sooner rather than later.
Drinking Rule: Take a shot whenever Klobuchar tries to create Girl Power camaraderie with Warren.
5. Joe Biden
Ooof. Iowa was NOT what the Biden camp was expecting. The lack of real enthusiasm among Biden supporters has always been an issue, but after a couple non-embarrassing debate performances and consistently strong poll numbers, no one was expecting the complete faceplant that occurred. Iowa confirmed that Biden’s ground organization has a lot of work to do. Like, all the work. But I guess when your base of support skews to the 65+ demographic, it is going to be harder to find people to canvas in the cold.
Joe isn’t completely down for the count. One thing we do need to remember is Iowa is just one state and the very beginning of the primaries. It is also just brimming with white people, so the significant support Biden has among black voters didn’t come in to play. But it is still a bad sign, especially since black voters are primarily concerned with backing the candidate they think can beat Trump. If he doesn’t turn this around soon, they may look elsewhere like they did in 2008, when their support for Hillary shifted to Obama when he won Iowa. Biden will certainly stick around until at least South Carolina, but his campaign has suffered a major wound.
Drinking Rule: Take a drink every time Biden looks like he’d rather be watching Green Acres at home in his onesie.
6. Andrew Yang
It’s probably not a great sign that when pundits and reporters talked about Yang during the caucus it was in the context of wondering which other candidate his supporters would move to. No one really even felt like pretending he was in the race. Still, the fact that there was so much interest in his supports does show they are a dedicated bunch. Maybe too much. It is incredibly difficult to see a path forward for Yang, especially as he sticks to his “literally throw money at the problem” platform that, after all this time, is still getting people interested.
Drinking Rule: Finish your drink whenever Yang says “freedom.” Good luck.
7. Tom Steyer
This fucking guy. He is spending millions of dollars so he can stand on stage and agree with whatever the last person to speak said. He wants to be Bernie’s bestie, apparently oblivious to the fact that Bernie doesn’t think he should exist. Guys, I think Steyer just wants a friend. Someone please bite the bullet so he can go home.
Drinking Rule: Yeah good, okay.